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盘点全球淡水管理之八:灾害的预防和管理



 

  1990~2001年期间,全世界共发生2 200起与水有关的重大灾害和轻度灾害,亚洲占35%,非洲占29%,美洲20%,欧洲13%,大洋洲约3%。1991~2000年世界各地共有15亿人口受洪水影响,2002年洪水造成的经济破坏估计超过300亿美元。导致洪水灾害日趋频繁和代价越来越高的原因包括砍伐森林、人口迁徙、土地使用和人口定居型态发生变化以及气候模式发生变化。最近大多数严重的洪水发生在亚洲,20世纪90年代,亚洲砍伐森林和城市化现象加剧了洪水的危险和严重性。在泰国,土地用途的变化造成流经曼谷的湄南河下游自然存水和蓄水量减少,其流量最高增加每秒3000立方米。

  但是,由于人们更加清楚地认识到与水有关的自然灾害的成因,技术方面有了改进,包括有了作短期和长期预防和预测的较好工具,而且更好地对与水有关的因素作监测和模拟。各国还日益重视减少易受灾害伤害的程度。但是,减少灾害风险并没有充分纳入发展战略和发展援助之中。2000年大会通过了国际减少灾害战略,以促进减少灾害风险,并将其作为可持续发展的组成部分。秘书长关于人类住区的报告阐述了易受灾害地区人类住区发展的问题。

 

原文如下:

 

Disaster prevention and management

A total of 2,200 major and minor water-related disasters occurred in the world in the period 1990-2001: 35 per cent in Asia, 29 per cent in Africa, 20 per cent in the Americas, 13 per cent in Europe, and about 3 per cent in Oceania. A total of 1.5 billion people were affected by floods around the world between 1991 and 2000, while economic damages due to floods in 2002 were estimated to be over $30 billion. Factors that explain the increasing frequency and costs of disastrous flooding include deforestation, demographic shifts, changing land-use and human settlement patterns, and changing weather patterns. In Asia, where the majority of recent large floods have occurred, deforestation and urbanization in the 1990s increased the risk and severity of floods. In Thailand, land use changes caused a reduction of natural water storage and retention in the lower Chao Phraya River Basin, which flows through Bangkok, increasing flows by up to 3,000 cubic metres per second.

Nonetheless, there have been technical improvements arising from better understanding of the causes of water-related disasters, including better tools for short- and long-term forecasting and prediction, and better monitoring and modelling of disaster-related factors. There has also been increasing emphasis on reducing vulnerability to disasters. Still, disaster risk reduction is not fully integrated into development strategies and development assistance. The General Assembly adopted the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) disaster risk reduction as an integral part of sustainable development. The issue of human settlement development in disaster-prone areas is addressed in the report of the Secretary-General on human settlements.

 

 


    作者:刘高译
直译